Trump Win Will Pose Profound Questions For Europe On Defence, Says Former NATO Chief

Donald Trump’s imminent second term as President of The United States will have far-reaching implications for European security and the war in the Ukraine, according to a former senior NATO policy-maker.

Retired Brigadier-General Frédéric Pesme is a former Director of Policy and Capabilities at NATO HQ. A former French Army general, he has 20 years of experience with NATO at national and international level, and is well-placed to offer insights about the alliance’s organisation, how it functions, and its strategies, capabilities  and concepts. He has lectured extensively on topics related to NATO and European Defence.

This week he has been in Warsaw chairing discussions at the Future Land Forces 2024 conference, a gathering of more than 600 military personnel, government officials, academics and leading industry experts seeking to address future challenges, identify capability gaps and develop solutions.

The former NATO bigwig suggested that one of the reasons for Trump’s electoral success might be domestic disillusionment with the Ukraine conflict as part of a wider pattern of “wars that weren’t going anywhere,” citing previous engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan as examples.

The future direction of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is foremost in many Europeans’ minds, not least given Trump’s bold but opaque previous claim that he can end the war “in a day” before he takes office again in January 2025.

Ex-BG Pesme remarked: “He will have to engage with the EU commercially, of course, but the hanging question is what will he do about Ukraine: will he continue to support them? He’s said he will ‘sort the problem out in one day,’ but how?

“If people voted for him, it’s partially because at home among some people there is fatigue for all the endless wars, and they feel that they have spent a lot of money overseas, and not in the U.S.

“The Chinese are investing a lot of money domestically; the quality of life in China is getting better and better and Americans are questioning why are they spending money on something like 800 bases overseas?

“When he says ‘Make America Great Again’ he means Americans want to live in a country that seems to be in the 21st century; they want to see their own situation improve.

“He will tell the Europeans to spend more, to take care of themselves without U.S. support. The appetite is there, politically at least, that we should do more, but how will it translate in terms of procurement?

“A Trump win should continue to spur increased defence spending in Europe, but even then the question will be how will procurement work: will industry be able to respond to demand?”

The former Brigadier General said another question-mark hung over the nature of any future U.S. support for missions in Ukraine: “I have seen speculation from experts wondering whether the U.S. will give authority to use F35s, for example? There needs to be a political will from the U.S.”

As for the wider implications for NATO, BG Pesme commented: “I think if he continues what he did during his first term, he will ask the Europeans to spend more, and then in some quarters the question will be, what is the value of Article 5?”

Article 5 states that an attack on any NATO member will be considered an attack on all members, and that members will take “actions deemed necessary to assist.” However, it does not explicitly require an armed response.

The former NATO chief speculated that under a new Trump administration if Article 5 was ever invoked, war might be “not part of the game” and that the American position might be: “We will support with intelligence, but not a military response.”