Ukraine War Round-up: Counteroffensive Catches Russia Off-Guard

A tumultuous two weeks in the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine have seen the first incursion into sovereign Russian territory since World War Two.

Inevitably the situation on the ground remains dynamic, but the headline developments since the start of the month are as follows:

• Incursion into Russia

On August 6 Ukrainian forces successfully staged a surprise counteroffensive into sovereign Russian territory along Ukraine’s north-west border. Within days it was claimed that Ukrainian troops were controlling roughly 1,000 square kilometres in Russia’s Kursk region, including the town of Sudzha.

Yesterday (Thursday) Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced his country’s troops had “full control” of the town. After authorities in Kursk declared a state of emergency, the bordering Russian region of Belgorod to the south followed suit after it, too, was shelled by Ukrainian forces.

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk outlined plans for a “security zone” in Kursk, to protect Ukraine’s borders.Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhy has previously said Kyiv is not interested in "taking over" Russian territory.

“The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace... the sooner the raids by the Ukrainian defence forces into Russia will stop,” he told reporters.

The counteroffensive has been interpreted in a number of ways by the wider international community. Some analysts have speculated that the newly occupied territory could be used as a bargaining chip in future negotiations in exchange for Ukrainian territory currently under Russian control.

However, President Zelensky has always maintained Kyiv will not negotiate with Moscow until Russian forces leave all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, annexed in 2014.

There’s also speculation Kyiv wants to use captured Russian PoWs to restart the stalled prisoner exchanges, with Zelenskiy this week remarking: “We have a new replenishment of our ‘exchange fund.” A significant number of Russian soldiers have been captured, including reports of over 100 taken in a single day.

It’s also been noted that the optics of the counteroffensive are useful to Ukraine in a number of ways, both providing a morale boost at home and causing political embarrassment to Vladimir Putin’s regime.

• Russian reaction

Russia, which has always referred to its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than characterising it in terms of invasion or war, has similarly sought to downplay Ukraine’s advances into the Kursk region.

Almost 200,000 people have so far been evacuated from border districts by the Russian government. Condemning the Ukrainian offensive as a “major provocation,” it has vowed to repel the advances made by Ukraine, with Putin announcing an “anti-terrorist operation” in the region.

As reported by American thinktank The Institute for the Study of War yesterday (Thursday), analysis of satellite images suggest Russian forces are digging trenches about 10 miles behind the current frontline in the region.

Further south in the Donbas region, Russian forces have continued to make slow gains, pushing towards the strategically important town of Pokrovsk.

• European/U.S. reaction

Sky News reported this week that British Challenger 2 tanks were among the weapons used by Ukrainian forces during its assault. The MoD has not directly commented on this claim but has stated that “operations inside Russia” were a permissible use of weapons provided by the U.K.

The department voiced the view that Ukraine had a right to use weapons for self-defence, with a spokesman adding, “That does not preclude operations inside Russia.”

Elsewhere in Europe, Latvia's Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told the BBC that a “consultation among legal experts within NATO countries” concluded “the right to self defence also covers the right to counter-attack.”

The prime ministers of Finland and Estonia have both publicly come out in support of Ukraine's military operation in Kursk, and last week, Germany’s foreign ministry said Ukraine entitlement to self-defence was “not limited to its own territory.”

Meanwhile, earlier this week U.S. President Joe Biden spoke out about the Ukrainian counteroffensive for the first time, remarking that it was “creating a real dilemma for Putin".

• Military aid package to Ukraine from U.S.

At the start of the month it was announced that another $125 million package of arms and equipment will be heading to Ukraine to support the country's ongoing struggle to repel the Russian invasion.

Stinger missiles, artillery ammunition and radar systems are among the latest arms and equipment. As per a U.S. DoD press release, this represented the Biden administration’s 63rd separate round of donations of equipment to its European ally since August 2021. The kit being sent includes air defence capabilities, multi-mission radars to detect and counter enemy artillery, and anti-tank weapons.

The United States has committed more than $56.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, more than $55 billion of which has been gifted since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Included in the latest tranche of equipment are Javelin anti-tank weapons, Stinger missiles, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 55mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles and small arms ammunition.

In addition a variety of ambulances, demolition kit, and spares will be heading to the European nation.